AFL line study and documentation thread

Mistermj · Mar 8, 2005

I think it might be a good idea to have a place to document the lines through the week so we can all watch and study the changes.

It will also be useful for disputes or for documenting that people used realistic lines for their picks.

Regardless....I'm sure it will be useful for something or someone. :103631605

Perhaps we can organize this so someone always posts the opening line here as I have copied and pasted the present examples. Then we can have an organized method for watching the line movement going forward.

We can develop this as this goes along. Volunteers or comments welcome.

Mistermj · Mar 8, 2005

Tuesday's 03/08/05 Pinnacle lines 45 minutes after open, approx. 12:17pm CST WEEK 7

Lines effective: 3/8/2005 10:17:46 AM - PST
Rotation Number
Arena Football Fri 3/11
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Fri 3/11 451 Phi Soul +11 -105 OVER 113 -105
07:30 PM 452 San Jose Sabercats -11 -105 UNDER 113 -105

Arena Football Sat 3/12
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sat 3/12 453 Georgia Force +4 -105 OVER 102 -105
04:00 PM 454 New York Dragons -4 -105 UNDER 102 -105
Sat 3/12 455 Las Vegas Gladiators -5 -105 OVER 90 -105
04:00 PM 456 Cob Destroyers +5 -105 UNDER 90 -105
Sat 3/12 457 Colorado Crush -8.5 -105 OVER 93 -105
05:30 PM 458 Nashville Kats +8.5 -105 UNDER 93 -105

Arena Football Sun 3/13
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sun 3/13 459 Chicago Rush -7.5 -105 OVER 105 -105
09:00 AM 460 Grand Rapids Rampage +7.5 -105 UNDER 105 -105
Sun 3/13 461 Arizona Rattlers +8.5 -105 OVER 97 -105
09:00 AM 462 Tampa Bay Storm -8.5 -105 UNDER 97 -105
Sun 3/13 463 Orlando Predators +3 -105 OVER 98.5 -105
12:00 PM 464 No Voodoo -3 -105 UNDER 98.5 -105
Sun 3/13 465 Dallas Desperados -6.5 -105 OVER 110 -105
01:00 PM 466 Aus Wranglers +6.5 -105 UNDER 110 -105

Mistermj · Mar 8, 2005

Pinny AFL lines Tuesday 1:00pm CST Approx 1 1/2 hours after the open.

Lines effective: 3/8/2005 11:01:49 AM - PST
Rotation Number
Arena Football Fri 3/11
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Fri 3/11 451 Phi Soul +11 -105 OVER 111 -102
07:30 PM 452 San Jose Sabercats -11 -105 UNDER 111 -108

Arena Football Sat 3/12
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sat 3/12 453 Georgia Force +5 -105 OVER 102 -107
04:00 PM 454 New York Dragons -5 -105 UNDER 102 -103
Sat 3/12 455 Las Vegas Gladiators -5 -105 OVER 90 -105
04:00 PM 456 Cob Destroyers +5 -105 UNDER 90 -105
Sat 3/12 457 Colorado Crush -8.5 -105 OVER 93 -105
05:30 PM 458 Nashville Kats +8.5 -105 UNDER 93 -105

Arena Football Sun 3/13
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sun 3/13 459 Chicago Rush -7.5 -105 OVER 105 -105
09:00 AM 460 Grand Rapids Rampage +7.5 -105 UNDER 105 -105
Sun 3/13 461 Arizona Rattlers +8.5 -105 OVER 97 -105
09:00 AM 462 Tampa Bay Storm -8.5 -105 UNDER 97 -105
Sun 3/13 463 Orlando Predators +3 -105 OVER 99.5 -105
12:00 PM 464 No Voodoo -3 -105 UNDER 99.5 -105
Sun 3/13 465 Dallas Desperados -6.5 -105 OVER 110 -105
01:00 PM 466 Aus Wranglers +6.5 -105 UNDER 110 -105

AFLGuru · Mar 8, 2005

MJ--

I don't have it here because I'm at home on Spring Break (I'm a college kid in case you haven't read all of the threads of past), but at home I have documented the opening line, the "levelled" line, the Vegas line, and the closing line for each game with just a few missing since week 1. I'm missing a few closing lines, but I do have documented all of the information. If you keep it this week, it'd be great. But aside from that at least until I come home for the summer, I'll gladly post the information on a separate thread if you'd like. Just one of my, oh, 17000 Excel documents on the AFL (okay, slight exaggeration, but it's a lot of files and tabs within on the files).

I'll tell you from best recollection, the over/unders that I am heavy on move on average 11 points from opening line to close, usually 9 of which occur on Tuesday. On Thursday Vegas opens up their lines as well as the other books, which almost always levels the numbers back a few points from the inflated numbers, and then they'll rise a bit at the end if a bunch of individual cappers agree with those numbers. By the way, in general I think you've got a pretty good looking card this week. Maybe you've got something here. I haven't seen a really great system that is better than sheer instinct (and not just my instinct either... I talk the game with a bunch of other people that cap it based off of sheer instinct and they're very successful as well). Hope you've got something great. I'll take burning the man no matter who's supplying the information!

--AFLGuru

Mistermj · Mar 8, 2005

One more for my records here. Tuesday Approx 5:45pm CST

Lines effective: 3/8/2005 3:47:52 PM - PST
Rotation Number
Arena Football Fri 3/11
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Fri 3/11 451 Phi Soul +11 -105 OVER 111 -102
07:30 PM 452 San Jose Sabercats -11 -105 UNDER 111 -108

Arena Football Sat 3/12
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sat 3/12 453 Georgia Force +5 -105 OVER 102 -107
04:00 PM 454 New York Dragons -5 -105 UNDER 102 -103
Sat 3/12 455 Las Vegas Gladiators -5 -105 OVER 90 -105
04:00 PM 456 Cob Destroyers +5 -105 UNDER 90 -105
Sat 3/12 457 Colorado Crush -8.5 -105 OVER 93 -105
05:30 PM 458 Nashville Kats +8.5 -105 UNDER 93 -105

Arena Football Sun 3/13
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sun 3/13 459 Chicago Rush -7.5 -105 OVER 105 -105
09:00 AM 460 Grand Rapids Rampage +7.5 -105 UNDER 105 -105
Sun 3/13 461 Arizona Rattlers +8.5 -105 OVER 97 -105
09:00 AM 462 Tampa Bay Storm -8.5 -105 UNDER 97 -105
Sun 3/13 463 Orlando Predators +3 -105 OVER 99.5 -105
12:00 PM 464 No Voodoo -3 -105 UNDER 99.5 -105
Sun 3/13 465 Dallas Desperados -6.5 -105 OVER 110 -105
01:00 PM 466 Aus Wranglers +6.5 -105 UNDER 110 -105

AFLGuru · Mar 9, 2005

Ach, you missed the Olympic line openings... Didn't catch what Pinny immediately did, as they were staggered a bit... and I was more concerned with hitting the "Submit Wagers" button than anything else. lol...

--AFLGuru

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>451</TD><TD width=185>Philadelphia Soul</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>452</TD><TD width=185>San Jose Sabercats</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-9½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>107</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Saturday, March 12, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:00 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>453</TD><TD width=185>Georgia Force</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>454</TD><TD width=185>New York Dragons</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>97</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:00 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>455</TD><TD width=185>Las Vegas Gladiators</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-5½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>97½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>456</TD><TD width=185>Columbus Destroyers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:30 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>457</TD><TD width=185>Colorado Crush</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-8</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>96</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>458</TD><TD width=185>Nashville Kats</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Sunday, March 13, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm (NBC) Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>459</TD><TD width=185>Chicago Rush</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-9</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>95½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>460</TD><TD width=185>Grand Rapids Rampage</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm (NBC) Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>461</TD><TD width=185>Arizona Rattlers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>462</TD><TD width=185>Tampa Bay Storm</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-7½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>103</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>3:00 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>463</TD><TD width=185>Orlando Predators</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>464</TD><TD width=185>New Orlean VooDoo</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-3</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>99½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>4:00 pm Week 7 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>465</TD><TD width=185>Dallas Desperados</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-7</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>106</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>466</TD><TD width=185>Austin Wranglers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Mistermj · Mar 9, 2005

Ok...well thanks anyway. When does Olympic Open? Is that the next best option for AFL lines?

AFLGuru · Mar 10, 2005

I opened at Olympic account yesterday... they open at some point Wednesday afternoon, sometime between 1:00 and 2:00 EST

MathProf · Mar 10, 2005

Best Book for AFL

I think that OLympic or most any other book is a better
option for AFL unless you yourself are such a sharp 'capper
that you can hit Pinny's opening lines with long-run
positive results.

Don't kid yourself - Pinnacle is as sharp as they come.
That's why they play at -105. Give respect where it
is due.

Mistermj · Mar 11, 2005

Friday Open of Pinnacle ML's 11:30 AM CST

Lines effective: 3/11/2005 9:35:07 AM - PST
Rotation Number
Arena Football Fri 3/11
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Fri 3/11 451 Phi Soul +10 -105 +310 OVER 109 -105
07:30 PM 452 San Jose Sabercats -10 -105 -360 UNDER 109 -105

Arena Football Sat 3/12
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sat 3/12 453 Georgia Force +6.5 -103 +204 OVER 101 +104
04:00 PM 454 New York Dragons -6.5 -107 -230 UNDER 101 -114
Sat 3/12 455 Las Vegas Gladiators -6 -103 -195 OVER 95.5 -105
04:00 PM 456 Cob Destroyers +6 -107 +177 UNDER 95.5 -105
Sat 3/12 457 Colorado Crush -8 -108 -275 OVER 96 -105 Props

05:30 PM 458 Nashville Kats +8 -102 +243 UNDER 96 -105

Arena Football Sun 3/13
Game Spread Money Line Total Points More
Sun 3/13 459 Chicago Rush -8.5 -104 -310 OVER 98 -112 Props

09:00 AM 460 Grand Rapids Rampage +8.5 -106 +270 UNDER 98 +102
Sun 3/13 461 Arizona Rattlers +9 -105 +248 OVER 98.5 -109 Props

09:00 AM 462 Tampa Bay Storm -9 -105 -280 UNDER 98.5 -101
Sun 3/13 463 Orlando Predators +3 +101 +133 OVER 99 -110
12:00 PM 464 No Voodoo -3 -111 -145 UNDER 99 +100
Sun 3/13 465 Dallas Desperados -7 -101 -230 OVER 108.5 +100
01:00 PM 466 Aus Wranglers +7 -109 +204 UNDER 108.5 -110